
آیا با مدیریت دارایی های فیزیکی میتوان به نبرد تغییر اقلیم رفت؟
محیط زیست و مدیریت دارایی های فیزیکی
کمترین تردیدی نیست که محیط زیست جزو مهمترین داراییهای بشر است و باید مورد توجه جدی قرار گیرد. چه بخواهیم و چه نخواهیم، مدیریت دارایی های فیزیکی و محیط زیست هر دو اثرات مستمر و شگرفی بر یکدیگر میگذارند. این اثرات اجتنابناپذیرند و پیامدهایی بلندمدت بهدنبال خواهند داشت. در این مقاله در مورد ارتباط بین مدیریت دارایی های فیزیکی و تغییر اقلیم بیشتر صحبت خواهیم کرد.
تغییر اقلیم
درحالحاضر یکی از موضوعات پرچالش و مورد توجه زیستمحیطی در جهان، «تغییر اقلیم» است. تغییر اقلیم خطری آشکار و ملموس برای جوامع، کسبوکارها و اکوسیستمها در سراسر دنیا به حساب میآید. از جمله دلایل انسانی تغییر اقلیم، افزایش گازهای گلخانهای ناشی از تولید و توسعۀ صنایع است. بر اساس آمارها و پژوهشها در سال 2016 حدود 25 درصد گازهای گلخانهای از منابع سوختهای فسیلی ناشی شده است. مهمترین گاز گلخانهای دیاکسید کربن (co2) است که میزان غلظت آن در قرن اخیر افزایش یافته و موجب گرمایش جهانی شده است. میزان co2 قبل از انقلاب صنعتی 280 پیپیاِم (ppm) بود، اما تا سال 2019 این مقدار به 411 پیپیاِم رسیده است. بنابراین مقابله با تولید گازهای گلخانهایِ تولیدیِ صنایع سنگین برای جلوگیری از تغییرات اقلیمی بسیار کلیدی است. اما شاید سختترین بخش کار همین کنترل و کاهش گازهای گلخانهای مخصوصاً در صنایعی همچون فولاد و بتن باشد. درحالحاضر زیرساختها (جادهها، ساختارهای شهری همچون پلها، شبکۀ آب و فاضلاب، ساختمانها، صنایع و…) مسئول 50 درصدی افزایش انتشار گازهای گلخانهای در سطح جهان هستند.
بسیاری از دانشمندان معتقدند که با افزایش آگاهیهای عمومی، مصرف بهینۀ سوخت و انرژی، افزایش سطح فضای سبز، جلوگیری از تخریب جنگلها، بازیافت مواد و استفاده از منابع جایگزین سوختهای فسیلی مانند باد و خورشید میتوان تغییر اقلیم و اثرات منفی آن بر زندگی بشر را کنترل کرد.
اثر تغییر اقلیم بر دارایی های فیزیکی
تغییر اقلیم در حوزۀ مدیریت دارایی های فیزیکی نیرویی مخرب محسوب میشود که قادر است پایداری مدیریت داراییها را تحتالشعاع قرار دهد. در واقع هر دو میتوانند اثرات متقابل بر هم داشته باشند. امروزه بزرگترین سرمایهگذاران جهان بهدلیل نقشی که در تغییرات آبوهوایی بازی میکنند، تحت فشار شدیدی قرار دارند؛ زیرا تمرکز بر رویارویی با گرمشدن کرۀزمین درحالحاضر از صنایع نفت و گاز و معدن عبور کرده و بهسمت شرکتهایی در حال حرکت است که تولیدکنندۀ و مصرفکنندۀ سوختهای فسیلی هستند. این مجتمعها و کارخانهها علاوه بر اینکه میتوانند عامل ایجاد تغییرات اقلیمی باشند، بهنحوی نابودکننده چرخۀ عمر و کاهندۀ عمر مفید داراییهای خود نیز هستند.
برای مثال، جادهها یکی از انواع داراییهای فیزیکی هستند که تولید و انتشار کربن را تشدید میکنند. جادههای بیشتر مساوی است با خودروهای بیشتر، و این بهمعنای تولید گازهای گلخانهای بیشتر است. طراحی و ساخت جادهها معمولاً بر اساس شرایط اقلیمی هر منطقه انجام میشود (مقدار دما و بارش) و بر این اساس مواد بهکاررفته برای مقاومت جاده در حداکثر شرایط اقلیمی در نظر گرفته میشود. تغییرات اقلیمی هم شامل تغییرات آهسته و هم پدیدههای ناگهانی است (بارشها و سیلابهای مهیب و غیرفصلی یا افزایش و کاهش دمای بیش از مقدار معمول)، بنابراین بهراحتی میتواند سازۀ جاده را تخریب کند.

با تغییر اقلیم، کل دنیا شاهد تغییرات آبوهوایی است، از طوفانهای شدید و آتشسوزیهای طبیعی گسترده و خشکسالی و کاهش بارندگی گرفته تا افزایش سرما یا سیلابهای مهیب و غیرمنتظرۀ ناشی از ذوبشدن یخچالها و برفها که میتوانند سالانه خسارات اقتصادی زیادی را بر دولتها و بخش خصوصی تحمیل کنند.
با افزایش گرمایش جهانی، بارش در برخی نقاط کاهش مییابد و کمآبی را در پی دارد و با افزایش دما نیاز بیشتری به آب احساس میشود. در این صورت صنایعی که وابسته به آب هستند با مشکلات عدیدهای روبهرو میشوند و ممکن است دوام نیاورند. از طرفی، بهطور کلی آبوهوای گرمتر کارایی برخی از تجهیزات را کاهش میدهد.
یکی دیگر از تأثیرات افزایش دما، تولید بیشتر انرژیهایی مثل برق است، بهخصوص تولید برق از سوختهای فسیلی، و این بهمعنی ایجاد پسخور مثبت است. استفاده از سوختهای فسیلی برای افزایش تولید، به گرمایش بیشتر میانجامد، و افزایش گرمایش نیز مساوی است با تولید بیشتر برای جبران گرما: روندی که مدام ادامه مییابد و گرمایش زمین را تشدید میکند.
رویارویی با تغییرات اقلیمی با بهرهگیری از مدیریت دارایی های فیزیکی
تأثیر گازهای گلخانهای بر تغییر اقلیم در آینده، با تحلیل طیف گستردهای از آبوهوای جهانی و با استفاده از مشاهدات و اندازهگیریها و همینطور مدلهای ریاضی تعیین میشود. در واقع این پیشبینیها مبتنی بر ادغام نتایج طیف وسیعی از مدلهای اقلیم جهانی خواهند بود که سناریوهایی را برای استفادۀ بهتر از انرژی و فعالیتهای اقتصادی ارائه میکنند. تغییرات اقلیمی اکنون یکی از عوامل تأثیرگذار در طراحی و مدیریت دارایی های فیزیکی به شمار میروند.
همانطور که گفته شد، یکی از دلایل اصلی افزایش گرمایش و تغییر اقلیمی، دیاکسید کربن است. امروزه با بررسی شاخصهایی همچون «ردپای کربن» (carbon footprint) یا حتی پیشرفتهتر از آن «دارایی در خطر کربن» (Carbon Value at Risk) در بسیاری از نقاط دنیا برای کاهش تولید و انتشار کربن تلاش میکنند.
مدیران و مهندسان دارایی های فیزیکی کسانی هستند که میتوانند بشر را از شر پیامدهای تغییر اقلیمی تا حد زیادی در امان نگه دارند. این افراد از طریق بازنگریها، بازمهندسیها و نیز مدیریت و توسعۀ زیرساختهایی که هوشمندتر و پایدارتر و انعطافپذیرتر هستند، نقش مهمی در نظارت بر سیارۀ شکنندۀ ما ایفا میکنند. هماینک کارهای شگفتانگیزی در سراسر جهان در حال انجام است. چهارمین انقلاب صنعتی در آستانۀ ظهور و بروز است. اینترنت اشیاء (Internet of Things)، انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر و درک بهتر از سیستمهای زمینی امکاناتی جدید برای تغییر سیستمهای زیرساختی پیش روی ما میگذارد. مدیرانِ توسعه و مدیران و مشاوران دارایی های فیزیکی میتوانند دست در دست هم در مسیر بهینهسازی منابع و پایداری محیطزیست به پیش بروند. با تمام تفاوتهای این دو گروه، بهبود بهرهوری انرژی مزایای زیادی برای مدیریت داراییهای فیزیکی به ارمغان خواهد آورد.
مدیران دارایی های فیزیکی با دردستداشتن ابزارهای هوشمند، سیستمهای فیزیکی سایبری و دانش عمیقتر از محیط میتوانند سیستمهای زیرساختی مانند انرژی، حملونقل و مدیریت پسماند را مدیریت کنند؛ و این اتفاق یعنی با پیوند فناوریهای دیجیتال و محیط فیزیکی، زیرساختهای هوشمند متولد خواهند شد.
تغییرات آبوهوایی باعث بارزترین تغییر در جهان سرمایهگذاری شده است که در چند دهۀ اخیر در عرصۀ صنعت اتفاق افتاده است. بنابراین ضروری است مدیران دارایی های فیزیکی نقش مهمی در پاسخ به بحران بازی کنند و رویکردهای بنیادیتری اتخاذ کنند.
باتوجهبه عدمقطعیتهای بزرگ سیاسی و علمی در حوزۀ تغییر اقلیم و ارتباط آن با صنعت، مهندسان و مدیران داراییها باید بتوانند با استفادۀ مؤثر از همین شرایط و با بررسی گذشته – همچون آیینهای که پشت سر را نشان میدهد – به درک و فهمی از آینده دست یابند و با ارزیابی دقیق شرایط محیطی بتوانند آمار قابل اعتمادی از طول عمر و شرایط آتی داراییها و سیستمهای داراییها ارائه کنند و با راهکارهای پیشنهادی، کسبوکارها را به سطوح عملکردی بالاتری هدایت کنند.
مشاوران و مدیران دارایی های فیزیکی میتوانند دنیا را بهسمت اقتصادهای کمکربن و دوستدار محیطزیست پیش ببرند. شاید بتوان کل فرایند کمک این متخصصان را در یک رویکرد سه جانبه خلاصه کرد:
- اندازهگیری و کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانهای (ارائۀ راهکارها و اقداماتی بهمنظور افزایش کارایی انرژی)؛
- ارزیابی ریسک تغییر اقلیم بر دارایی های فیزیکی (ارزیابی و پایش خطرات ناشی از تغییر اقلیم و ضررهای احتمالی به تجهیزات و کسبوکارها)؛
- ارائۀ راهحلهایی برای گذار بهسمت اقتصادی با تولید کربن کمتر (جایگزینی انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر).
درهرحال، تغییر اقلیم امری گریزناپذیر است و مقابله با آن از توانایی بشر خارج است. پس میبایست با استفاده از تواناییهای مهندسان و مشاوران مدیریت دارایی های فیزیکی در راستای سازگاری با این تغییرات اقلیمی پیش رفت و با استفاده از راهکارها و راهحلهای تخصصی با قدرت و آگاهی در برابر آسیبهای احتمالی ظاهر شد.
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