آشنایی با مفهوم تاب‌ آوری ( Resiliency )

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آشنایی با مفهوم تاب‌ آوری ( Resiliency )



 ارتقای تاب‌ آوری ( Resiliency ) راهی برای مواجهه با حوادث

براساس تعریف دولت آمریکا تاب‌ آوری ( Resiliency ) برای سیستم‌های زیرساختی عبارت است از «توانایی سیستم‌ها، زیرساخت‌ها، دولت، کسب‌وکار، جوامع و افراد برای مقاومت، تحمل، جذب، بازیابی، آماده‌سازی یا سازگاری با یک حادثه ناگوار که موجب آسیب، نابودی یا از دست رفتن موارد مهم ملی شود». بنابراین عدم توجه به این مفهوم می‌تواند آسیب‌های جبران‌ناپذیری را برای یک سیستم ایجاد کند و باید در طراحی، بهره‌برداری و نگهداشت این سیستم‌‌ها تاب ‌آوری را لحاظ کرد.



آشنایی با انواع حوادث

به منظور آشنایی بهتر با مفهوم تاب‌ آوری ( Resiliency ) ابتدا باید به شناخت نوع حوادث پرداخت. در یک تقسیم‌بندی حوادث بر اساس شدت و احتمال وقوعی که دارند، در سه دسته تعریف می‌شوند:

الف- حوادثی که شدت آن‌ها ناچیز یا کم است و احتمال وقوع آن‌ها مشخص است. این دسته از حوادث قابلیت اطمینان سیستم را تحت تأثیر زیادی قرار نمی‌دهند بنابراین دارای اهمیت کمتری هستند و پیشگیری از آن‌ها در اولویت قرار نمی‌گیرد. به این گونه از حوادث، شناخته شده گویند.

ب- حوادثی که به ندرت رخ می‌دهند، اما عواقب وقوع آن‌ها قابل برآورد است. حوادثی مانند طوفان در شهری چون تهران؛ اگرچه احتمال وقوع چنین حوادثی قابل تعیین نیست اما خسارت ناشی از آن را با توجه به موارد مشابه رخ داده می‌توان تخمین زد. این دسته از حوادث را با نام حوادث شناخته نشده یا قوی خاکستری می‌شناسند.

ج- حوادثی که تاکنون تجربه نشده‌اند و عواقب رخداد آن‌ها سنگین و ابعاد آن نامشخص است. با توجه به این‌که این حوادث تاکنون رخ نداده‌اند، صحبت از احتمال آن‌ها نیز کاری سخت است. برای مثال وقوع زلزله در شهر تهران ممکن است، ولی با توجه به عدم رخداد آن تا به امروز نمی‌توان احتمال آن را به درستی تخمین زد. البته واضح است چنین رویدادی تبعات سنگینی خواهد داشت. این دسته از رخدادها را حوادث غیرقابل شناسایی یا قوی سیاه نامند.

حوادث دسته الف را می‌توان با مفاهیم قابلیت اطمینان توجیه کرد، در حالی‌که برای توجیه حوادث دسته ب و ج نیاز به یک مفهوم جدید تحت عنوان «تاب‌آوری» وجود دارد.

نکته: در مدیریت ریسک با توجه به احتمال نزدیک به صفر برخی از این حوادث، ممکن است به طور کلی ریسک قابل صرفه نظر محسوب شود و راهکاری برای آن در نظر گرفته نشود.

در سازمان‌ها و شرکت‌های تجهیزمحور، تجهیزات به طور مداوم در معرض خرابی هستند که علل آن ریشه در عوامل مختلف ذاتی، طبیعی و انسانی دارد. در اینگونه سیستم‌ها، نگهداری و تعمیرات تجهیزات بخش جدایی‌ناپذیری از فرایند بهره‌برداری است. پس از وقوع یک حادثه و افت یا از دست رفتن کارکرد سیستم، بازیابی آن ضرورتی گریزناپذیر است. در اینگونه سیستم‌ها توانایی کاهش مدت و شدت اغتشاشات؛ یا به عبارت دیگر، توانایی پیش‌بینی، تحمل و تطبیق با اغتشاشات مختلف و بازیابی سریع تاب‌آوری نامیده می‌شود (دقت شود که منظور از اغتشاش حوادث با احتمال کم و پیامد شدید است.).

اجزای تشکیل دهنده تاب‌ آوری ( Resiliency ) یک سیستم

اجزای تشکیل دهنده تاب‌آوری یک سیستم در شرایط وقوع یک اغتشاش عبارتند از:



پیش از حادثه:

  • هوشیاری وضعیتی: آگاهی از وضعیت سیستم در گذشته، حال و آینده (سیستم گسترده پایش، حفاظت و کنترل)
  • آمادگی: آمادگی برای وقوع حوادث قوی خاکستری و سیاه
  • استقامت: استقامت در برابر حوادث شناخته شده

حین حادثه:

  • قابلیت انطباق: تطابق با وضعیت جدید شبکه
  • قابلیت دوام (تحمل): توانایی سیستم برای تعدیل حادثه

پس از حادثه:

  • بازیابی و خودترمیمی: بازگشت به حالت بهره‌برداری عادی، تشخیص و مکان یابی و رفع خطا و بازیابی خودکار
  • سرعت عمل: سرعت بالا برای بازگشت به حالت عادی

سنجش تاب‌ آوری ( Resiliency ) یک سیستم

جهت ارزیابی تاب‌آوری در ابتدا باید شاخص‌های کمی تعریف کرد تا بتوان میزان آن را سنجید. شکل زیر شاخص عملکرد سیستم را در خصوص بار تأمین شده سیستم بر حسب زمان (به عنوان یک مثال) به نمایش گذاشته است.



همان گونه که در شکل مشخص است، عملکرد سیستم پس از آغاز حادثه (t0) با توجه به استقامتی که دارد، به سرعت افت نمی‌کند. این مرحله را می‌توان جلوگیری نامید. مدت زمان این مرحله بستگی به هوشیاری وضعیتی و استحکام شبکه دارد. طبیعتا هر چه مدت زمان جلوگیری بیشتر باشد، سیستم از قابلیت اطمینان بالاتری برخوردار است. این افزایش زمان بستگی زیادی به مرحله طراحی و دقت در انجام آن دارد.

پس از زمان td عملکرد سیستم دچار افت می‌شود. مرحله دوام از این لحظه آغاز می‌شود و تا زمانی که سیستم در حداکثر افت باقی می‌ماند (tmin)، ادامه می‌یابد.

مرحله بازیابی درست از زمان بهبود وضعیت عملکرد سیستم شروع می‌شود و تا زمانی که سیستم به وضعیت پایدار پیش از وقوع حادثه برگردد، ادامه می‌یابد. مدت زمان بازیابی می‌تواند به عنوان یک شاخص برای سنجش کیفیت بازیابی سیستم مطرح شود. هر چه این زمان کوتاه‌تر باشد سیستم از تاب‌آوری بیشتری برخوردار است.

یک سیستم مهندسی معمولا به‌ گونه‌ای طراحی می‌شود که از استقامت لازم در برابر حوادث عادی برخوردار بوده و عملکرد آن در چنین شرایطی به راحتی تحت تأثیر قرار نگیرد. ولی در عین حال این سیستم باید تاب‌ آوری ( Resiliency ) کافی را هم داشته باشد تا بتواند خود را متناسب با یک اغتشاش شدید و بدون از دست رفتن عملکرد خود، تطبیق داده و پس از رفع اغتشاش سریعا خود را بازیابی کند.


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